No interviews!

at the end of the day statistics dun mean a thing if you are the one not receiving a letter on match day.

Why don't you school me then? I am not a huge stats person and would humbly admit being wrong if in fact I was.

AOA is not an independent variable nor is it the single variable in the model. You cannot make a statement regarding absolute probablity. You can make a statement about relative probability though. Ie. you cannot say someone with AOA has 96% chance of matching, but you can say they have X times better odds of matching than not matching. In that case all variables and confounding factors are represented in both groups.

As I stated in my post, a person elected into AOA likely has high board scores, research, great grades, etc.. That's the reason for election in the first place.

hey guys,

I didn't mean to ruffle any feathers, I'm genuinely sorry to offend. Just trying to keep things loose with a little positive thinking!

As I stated in my post, a person elected into AOA likely has high board scores, research, great grades, etc.. That's the reason for election in the first place.

And around the circle we go.

Hence why it's not an independent variable and why you cannot say having AOA gives you a 96% chance of matching.

If you have AOA, a 210, no research, and crappy letters, your chance of matching is not 96%.

Doing a 2x2 square gives a relative risk of 7.32, ie. regardless of other outcome parameters, being AOA increases your chance of matching 7.32 fold. The question of course becomes determining your pre-AOA matching probability based off other parameters, which is basically impossible to do since many aspects of matching can not me numerically charted (MSPE, dean's leter, interview, etc.)

Also it depends on where you applied to. There are many MANY programs that just haven't sent out thier stuff yet. I of course didnt match last year but at this point i also had 0 interviews and ended up with 10 myself.

agreed-- seems like programs (at least many of the ones i applied to) have been slower getting stuff out this year. a lot of mine havent shown up on the interview offer thread yet whereas they had already last year. that doesnt necessarily mean the programs havent sent something out, but i think that with all the people who visit this site, things are usually disclosed as they occur.

im also surprised today is seemingly so slow. i guess folks are taking the holiday off.