No interviews!

Perhaps they only ranked top programs that were out of their league?

A common thought, but far from the truth. I can't speak for everyone, but I applied very broadly (in terms of both program prestige, curriculum, and geography) last year. I interviewed at all caliber of program and ranked every single program I interviewed at (17 total). Still no dice.

MisterMo...did you ever find out what went wrong?? Obviously you have a strong application to go on 17 interviews......

There is still a 1/25 chance that an AOA member will not match into orthopaedic surgery.

It's not 1/25. But I'm not going to bother with a stats lesson. Think what you like.

There will certainly be people with 240+, AOA, research who don't match, but the point is that they are RARE.

But that is the whole package, not just AOA. The fact that these factors are linked is why the NRMP data is hard to intrepret.

There is still a 1/25 chance that an AOA member will not match into orthopaedic surgery.

It's not 1/25. But I'm not going to bother with a stats lesson. Think what you like.

There will certainly be people with 240+, AOA, research who don't match, but the point is that they are RARE.

But that is the whole package, not just AOA. The fact that these factors are linked is why the NRMP data is hard to intrepret.

Why don't you school me then? I am not a huge stats person and would humbly admit being wrong if in fact I was.

Based on the NRMP Charting Outcomes 2009 ( www.nrmp.org/data/chartingoutcomes2009v3.pdf ), there were 744 applicants to ORS. 586 matched, 158 did not match (79% matched). Of the 744 applicants, 169 were AOA members (23%). 163 of the 169 AOA applicants matched (96%).
24/25=96%, 1/25=4%


Now, we all know that there are many factors involved with residency selection. We don't have the luxury of knowing the results in the match. Best of luck to everyone.

MisterMo...did you ever find out what went wrong?? Obviously you have a strong application to go on 17 interviews......

Never did, never will. I contacted all the programs I interviewed at and about half responded, all with something along the lines of "Fell through the cracks", "just missed by X spots", or "incredibly competitive year".

The system is unpredictable, but it SHOULD work out for most of us here. There are no guarantees though, regardless of your stats, so you need to take all aspects of the application process very seriously. The rest is out of your hands.

Why don't you school me then? I am not a huge stats person and would humbly admit being wrong if in fact I was.

AOA is not an independent variable nor is it the single variable in the model. You cannot make a statement regarding absolute probablity. You can make a statement about relative probability though. Ie. you cannot say someone with AOA has 96% chance of matching, but you can say they have X times better odds of matching than not matching. In that case all variables and confounding factors are represented in both groups.