No interviews!

21% is a significant number and it applies to the general applicant pool. If you look at other factors, 240+ has a 90% chance of matching and AOA gives you a 96% chance of matching.

Lies, damn lies and statistics!

Just because 96% of applicants with AOA matched, does not mean you have a 96% chance to match if you are AOA. Likewise for any other factor listed by the NRMP outcomes.

It is the whole picture...

i think he was just trying to be upbeat and optimistic. really, getting down on ourselves this early in the game isnt constructive. and boiled down to basest form, odds are more likely that one will match than that one won't match (i.e. according to above figures 79% do and 21% dont). so i guess i dont see the point in being too critical. he wasnt really making promises so much as trying to be encouraging. the sentiment was well-intended.

we're all under some level of stress right now peeps-- let's try not to heighten any of it if we can avoid it...

although I wonder if these numbers also might be a little skewed. I'm not 100% positive where Charting Outcomes gets their data, but around graduation time last year my entire class received a survey from NRMP on our match experiences. Me, having been burned by the ortho match despite supposedly stellar stats, did not bother to fill out or return the survey. Significant bias may be at play here, so the numbers might not be as rosy as they seem.

I would assume that the NRMP gets their data from the application process, and not returned surveys. Using surveys would lead to a significant bias as persons who matched would be more apt to return a survey. I hope that I am right.

I am curious as to why certain people with solid #'s didn't match. I have heard of 187's after 2 failed attempts at step 1 not matching, but I wonder why some of the 240+ applicants don't match. Perhaps they only ranked top programs that were out of their league?

21% is a significant number and it applies to the general applicant pool. If you look at other factors, 240+ has a 90% chance of matching and AOA gives you a 96% chance of matching.

Lies, damn lies and statistics!

Just because 96% of applicants with AOA matched, does not mean you have a 96% chance to match if you are AOA. Likewise for any other factor listed by the NRMP outcomes.

It is the whole picture...

A person who was elected into AOA likely has solid board scores, solid EC, solid grades, solid research etc... Obviously, this varies by the chapter. A lot of these things are sought after characteristics of an applicant into any residency position.

There is still a 1/25 chance that an AOA member will not match into orthopaedic surgery. There will certainly be people with 240+, AOA, research who don't match, but the point is that they are RARE.

although I wonder if these numbers also might be a little skewed. I'm not 100% positive where Charting Outcomes gets their data,

From the 2009 edition, the Charting Outcomes in the Match pubs get their data from the following-

"Combining data from the NRMP, the database of AAMC’s
Electronic Residency Application Service (ERAS), USMLE
scores made available by the National Board of Medical
Examiners (NBME) and the Educational Commission for
Foreign Medical Graduates (ECFMG), and other AAMC data
sources"

like they were stating before....its the whole picture......I know a guy with 260's (x2) and AOA who got 18 interviews yet did not match.......

I have found out very quickly that a high USMLE and AOA dont really guarantee anything....