MS3 chances at ortho?

MS3, US MD top-50 school.
Pre-clinicals: Half HP, half P.
Clinicals: No grades yet, still on first rotation.
Step 1: 240-245
Research:
-3 Ortho publications (including 1 first author), 1 in another surg subspecialty (first author), 1 ortho pub in progress (first author).
-4 Ortho presentations at national conferences (not presenter but listed as author).
-3 Ortho posters at national conferences (1st author on 2 of them).

What are my chances assuming I honor surgery and as many other 3rd year rotations as possible? I am a bit worried about my pre-clinical grades (no honors).

Thanks in advance.

you can find this written a million ways all over orthogate and SDN - preclinical grades are not an important component of resident selection for any speciality. hence, most medical schools are switching to pass/fail for preclinicals. the usefulness of doing well in preclinicals is that it sets you up for success on step 1 and clinical year shelf exams, and puts you in the running for AOA.

your step 1 is average for ortho. your research is above average. if you can HP or H surgery and medicine, choose your away rotations wisely, and apply broadly, you should have a great shot at landing a spot next year.

Thanks, I kind of figured this was the case - as you mentioned I have seen similar information online. I appreciate the feedback!

For whatever it is worth. I have heard from the program directors at 2 institutions that their cutt-off this year is 238 and 240.
As in they told me they are not inviting people below this for interviews.

Wow yikes.

Not really that surprising, I guess. Rush has a 245 cutoff unless you do a rotation there, and there are apparently a few others with 240+ cutoffs.