I keep on hearing how programs are looking for women for "political reasons", and how being a woman can be an advantage. However, I didn't see that this year. On most of my interviews I was the only woman, or one of two that day. I find it especially interesting that one particular small program was very vocal about wanting to get a woman this year (they had none previously). Other people that interviewed there heard it from attendings affiliated with the program, and I was made to feel highly recruited (the secretary told me how glad she was I had accepted their invite, one of my interviewing attendings that I had met previously at a conference told me that they really wanted me there because of my background and because they really wanted to take a woman). Funny thing was, they only interviewed 2 women out of something like 40 total (2 spots a year). Surprise, surprise I didn't match there despite ranking it #1, telling them I was ranking it number one, and several calls made on my behalf by attendings from my home program.
The cynic in me believes that programs want to look good by interviewing lots of women and that may lead to the perception that women have an advantage. However, I believe that many of these interviews are just for show and they have no intention of ranking a woman very high. Maybe that was why they picked me as one of their token interviews (so they could use my low step 1 as an excuse to rank me low or leave off the ROL entirely), otherwise they could have interviewed one of the females with great scores, research, etc.
I think a female with a stellar application has a good chance (two females from my school matched at great programs, not sure how many there were this year). Those who are average or who have a red flag I think are more screwed than their male counterparts. Just my perspective of course, and colored by rejection times 2.