Chances to match

You can help yourself out a lot by rocking step 2, doing well on away rotations, and interviewing well (because you will probably have fewer interviews). These steps are very critical and if you do well and apply broadly... you should match. Hopefully you have a good relationship with your home program.

Lots of people with your similar stats match every year (I hope to be one of them this year). It's just a little more nerve racking when you don't have that big fat step 1 score.