According to my limited knowledge, all of what you say is correct.

definitely would agree... im not sure which programs use cutoffs and where they are. one school in the midwest separates into 3 categories...

I would agree....this year, a 230+ score will get you some interviews, but a LOT of rejections....I would think that 240+ willl give you a better shot. I would study your nuts off for step 1

Just to reiterate what I've said on other posts, I had a 220, applied to 45 programs, and have received 23 invites to date (including HSS, Brown, and Columbia as a nonrotator)... I repeat, if you have an otherwise strong application (i.e. good grades - AOA def helps, some research, good step 2 if available) a 220 is almost no issue whatsoever. The "absolute 230 cutoff" is a myth... it is a surmountable hurdle. A sidenote... a very strong LOR, even from your average orthopod, can get you interviews BY ITSELF... this has been mentioned to me at 3 separate interviews. There's also often debate about whether to take Step 2 early or not when your step 1 is

Dr. Hibbert, did you forget to mention that you go to a top 10 ranked medical school or that your letters were from big wigs in the business? There are many factors other than the 230/AOA that land you 23 interviews......

I go to a ranked "primary care" medical school. My letters were not from "big wigs"... in fact, while I hold tremendous respect for everyone who wrote me letters (and would argue that they ARE some of the best), none of them have much more than regional name recognition... no major research backgrounds, no national positions in academies/societies, no procedures/implants named after them, etc. In fact, you bring up a good point... having relied almost entirely on this biased forum, I was convinced entering this interview season (pre-Step 2 score) that I was on the losing end of average (based on the Match Statistics document), and would struggle for my 10 interviews... I thought 220 was going to hurt me with "cutoffs". I don't think it has. Anyway, my point is that if you are sub-230 entering fourth year, you can work your butt off on SubI's, keep a smile on your face, get strong letters, and set aside time for Step 2, and suddenly a below mean application becomes a strong one. As an aside, there are no guarantees... I know of a few guys with stronger initial stats than mine that, were I a chairman, I would have loved to have in my program, yet they haven't been quite as lucky... who knows...

... who knows...

i think that pretty much sums it up... its monkeys throwing darts and nothing more.